FAO Report Warns of Climate Change Risks to Global Fisheries and Aquatic Food Systems

A newly released report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) underscores alarming projections regarding the future of exploitable fish biomass in the world’s oceans. Published during the Thirty-sixth session of the Committee on Fisheries (COFI36) at FAO headquarters in Rome, the report, titled “Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries: Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project,” paints a sobering picture of potential climate impacts on global fisheries.

According to the report, under a high-emissions scenario leading to global warming of 3–4.0 °C by mid-century, significant declines in exploitable fish biomass exceeding 10 percent are expected across numerous oceanic regions. By the end of the century, these declines could worsen to 30 percent or more in 48 countries and territories, including top fish-producing nations like Peru and China.

In stark contrast, under a low-emissions scenario projecting global warming of 1.5–2 °C, changes in fish biomass are projected to stabilize, with declines limited to 10 percent or less across 178 countries and territories by 2100. This scenario highlights the critical role of emissions reduction in mitigating future losses in marine biodiversity and fish stocks.

The report, developed by the Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP), a collaboration between international researchers and FAO, utilizes advanced numerical models to forecast long-term climate impacts on marine ecosystems. It emphasizes the urgent need for adaptive management strategies to safeguard global fisheries and aquatic food systems.

Manuel Barange, FAO’s Assistant Director-General and Director of the Fisheries and Aquaculture Division, stressed the importance of these findings for informing adaptation efforts at global and local scales. “Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries is crucial,” Barange emphasized, “lower emissions significantly mitigate end-of-century biomass losses, underscoring the benefits of climate change mitigation measures for fisheries and aquatic foods.”

The report also highlights the disproportionate risks faced by Small Island Developing States, where fisheries are vital for food security and economic stability. For instance, the low-emissions scenario could potentially avert 68–90 percent of projected losses in extreme scenarios for Pacific Islands such as Nauru and Tuvalu.

Looking forward, the FAO’s Blue Transformation vision aims to enhance resilience, equity, and sustainability in aquatic food systems globally. Future research under FishMIP, now in its upgraded phase as FishMIP2.0, will broaden its scope to include comprehensive assessments of ocean and coastal resource management. This approach will integrate adaptive fisheries management with broader agrifood policies, aligning with FAO’s Strategy on Climate Change and its Action Plan to address interlinkages across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems.

Founded in 2013, FishMIP continues to play a key role in providing actionable insights for governments and industries to navigate the complexities of climate change impacts on seafood sectors. FishMIP2.0 aims to further enhance the reliability of modeling projections, supporting informed decision-making towards sustainable marine resource management amidst a changing climate landscape.